Next 30 to 90 days center on covenant waiver negotiations likely tied to pricing step ups of roughly 50 to 150 bps, tighter baskets on capex and dividends, and enhanced reporting. Liquidity preservation becomes critical as wholesale partners reduce open to buy in Europe and China; expect stricter payment terms from suppliers and potential inventory rebalancing to avoid discounting.

Over 6 to 12 months, Valentino must accelerate a retail mix shift and cost reset to stabilize EBITDA, targeting a 5 to 8 percent opex reduction and a 10 to 15 percent wholesale rationalization to lift DTC mix by 300 to 500 bps. For Kering, the 2029 option becomes a valuation lever; continued underperformance could justify a repricing or staged acquisition contingent on margin milestones, while a successful reset could secure a diversified second profit engine beyond Gucci.

Financial strain at Valentino opens space for LVMH, Prada Group, and Hermes to capture wholesale doors and consumer mindshare in Europe and China. Kering faces portfolio perception risk if Gucci recovery and Valentino turnaround lag concurrently; conversely, decisive action could reposition Kering as a disciplined acquirer and operator, improving market confidence versus peers.

Italian ateliers and leather suppliers may see payment term extensions or volume volatility; banks may push for inventory covenants. Wholesale clients could cut orders 5 to 10 percent for FW25, pressuring sell in but potentially improving full price sell through if supply is tightened. Consumers may face lower availability of iconic lines, with risk of brand equity erosion if markdowns rise.