In the next 30-90 days, retailer behavior is likely to tilt further toward Rolex and other high-heat maisons (Cartier, AP, Patek) as they offer higher sell-through, lower markdown risk, and stronger store traffic via waitlists. Omega faces heightened risk of being used as a 'conversion alternative' when Rolex is unavailable, which can lift unit volume but typically pressures discounting and damages long-term willingness-to-pay. Expect more aggressive negotiation from Chinese distributors/landlords and tougher allocation discussions with multi-brand retailers, especially if they see >30% secondary-market undercutting on core SKUs.

Over the next 6-12 months, a continued China value mindset could structurally shift Omega demand toward pre-owned unless the brand tightens wholesale leakage, reduces SKU sprawl, and resets the perceived 'investment value' of hero references. If China rebounds in 2026, Omega's oversized China POS base (214) becomes a double-edged sword: it can accelerate recovery, but also amplifies price erosion if traffic is stimulated via promotions. Meanwhile, Rolex's scale advantage (now ~5x Omega by sales) increases its ability to invest in manufacturing, AD excellence, and brand experiences, reinforcing a flywheel that makes it harder for challengers to regain share without a differentiated proposition and stricter distribution discipline.

Rolex is consolidating the 'category captain' position in Swiss watches by combining controlled availability, high perceived residual values, and an AD network that protects pricing. Cartier's growth (CHF 3.2B to CHF 3.5B in 2025, +~9%) suggests consumers are rewarding clear design codes and strong retail execution even in a flat market. AP and Patek overtaking Omega by turnover signals the market's ongoing premiumization: fewer brands are capturing disproportionate value via exclusivity and curated supply, while large-scale premium brands with broader availability face greater markdown exposure.

Retail/ADs: stronger bargaining power shifts to Rolex and high-velocity maisons; Omega risks lower visibility, less prime display, and reduced co-op efficiency unless it can guarantee sell-through at MSRP. Secondary market: abundant supply and 30%+ discounts create a reference price that undermines Omega boutiques and authorized partners, especially in China. Suppliers and manufacturing: Rolex's higher throughput and investment capacity can tighten access to top-tier components and talent; Omega may need to prioritize fewer, higher-impact references to optimize production and reduce slow-moving inventory. Customers: waitlist culture continues to pull aspirational consumers into the Rolex ecosystem; Omega must counter with superior availability plus a compelling reason to pay full price (service, limited drops, configurability, or exclusive bundles).