De Beers shifts growth engine to India with Forevermark rollout to 2026
Bottom Line Impact
This pivot can re-accelerate revenue through India-led sell-out and improve market position in the fastest-growing demand pool, but margin and brand equity outcomes will hinge on tariff resolution and the ability to sustain natural diamond pricing power against lab-grown substitution.
Key Facts
5- De Beers will open its 5th and largest global Forevermark store in Mumbai this week, signaling an India-first brand investment cycle.
- Forevermark targets 25 outlets across India by end-2026, up from 5 today (5x store-count increase in ~24 months).
- Management cites India demand growing at double-digits annually for the last four years, with expectations that growth continues into 2026.
- India is now De Beers’ second-largest market after the US, indicating a material shift in geographic demand mix.
- US 50% tariffs have disrupted India’s diamond cutting and polishing exports, with trade flows down around 50% per CEO Al Cook; a US-India pact is positioned as the biggest tailwind into 2026.
Time Horizons
Executive Summary
De Beers is repositioning natural diamond demand creation toward India, using an accelerated Forevermark retail footprint to offset softer sell-out in China and margin pressure from lab-grown competition. If it converts India’s double-digit demand growth into higher branded natural diamond penetration, the strategy can improve sell-through and pricing power, but trade friction and lab-grown substitution risk compressing margins and creating inventory overhang.
Actionable Insights
Immediate Actions (Next 30-90 days)
Reallocate 20-30% of India media spend toward Gen-Z and young millennial education on natural diamond differentiation (provenance, rarity, lifetime value) and pair it with in-store clienteling and bridal appointment funnels.
Rationale: Lab-grown is winning younger buyers on price and digital performance; natural diamonds need a clearer, measurable conversion journey rather than broad awareness.
Role affected:CMO
Urgency level:immediate
Stress-test inventory and margin scenarios under three tariff outcomes (status quo 50%, partial relief, full relief) and set guardrails on India-bound polished inventory weeks-of-supply with automatic rebalancing triggers.
Rationale: Trade friction can rapidly create excess inventory and discounting pressure globally; proactive controls protect gross margin and working capital.
Role affected:CFO
Urgency level:immediate
Short-term Actions (6-12 months)
Approve an India growth plan that prioritizes 6-8 high-potential Tier-2/Tier-3 cities with clear store economics gates (payback period, productivity per sqm) before committing to full-scale rollout.
Rationale: De Beers’ stated push beyond metros increases competitive pressure in exactly the markets where new wealth is emerging; disciplined gating reduces the risk of footprint-led margin dilution.
Role affected:CEO
Urgency level:short-term
Lock in an India operating model for franchise governance (assortment controls, service standards, CRM data ownership) and implement a 90-day store opening playbook to de-risk the 5x expansion.
Rationale: Rapid expansion increases brand dilution risk; operational standardization is the difference between scale and fragmentation.
Role affected:COO
Urgency level:short-term
Risks & Opportunities
Primary Risks
- Trade policy volatility: ongoing US 50% tariffs and unclear timing/terms of a US-India pact can disrupt polishing economics, lead times, and pricing stability.
- Lab-grown substitution: younger buyers increasingly accept lab-grown, compressing natural diamond premiums and raising markdown risk on slower-moving SKUs.
- Execution risk in rapid rollout: expanding from 5 to 25 outlets by end-2026 increases risks in site selection, talent, franchise compliance, and inconsistent client experience.
Primary Opportunities
- India demand flywheel: sustained double-digit growth through 2026 could make India the most reliable global growth pool for natural diamonds as China remains soft.
- Tier-2 and Tier-3 city capture: early mover advantage in cities like Chandigarh, Lucknow, and Jaipur can lock in mindshare and real estate before competitive saturation.
- Branded natural diamond premiumization: higher penetration of certified, traceable stones and upgrade programs can defend ASPs and reduce price-only comparison versus lab-grown.