Next 30-90 days: liquidity relief likely cures covenant non-compliance and funds SS25 production and vendor payments, reducing immediate default risk. Kering faces ~30m euro cash outflow (30% share). Expect lender discussions to reset covenant headroom and reporting cadence; marketing and capex likely remain constrained through Q1 to preserve cash.

6-12 months: without a demand rebound, leverage remains elevated (illustrative net debt to EBITDA near 3.5-4.0x even after 100m injection). Turnaround will require SKU rationalization, channel mix shift toward own retail, and cost actions to target +200-300 bps EBITDA margin uplift by FY26. Full acquisition deferral delays integration synergies and complicates governance, increasing risk that purchase price terms must be re-cut or made performance based.

Kering's capital and management bandwidth stay tied up in stabilization rather than offense, while LVMH, Prada Group, and Moncler continue to invest behind high-velocity franchises. Valentino risks ceding mindshare in ready-to-wear and leather goods if newness and hero product investment is curtailed; peers with cleaner balance sheets can lean into marketing and clienteling to capture trade-down and tourist flows.

Suppliers gain near-term payment visibility but may face tighter terms and smaller FW25 orders. Wholesale partners could see reduced allocations and stricter door productivity thresholds. Clients may experience slower refresh cycles if OTB is cut; maintaining VIC engagement through capsule drops and bespoke services becomes critical. Banks will require tighter covenants, quarterly checks, and potentially security packages.