Over the next 30-90 days, local demand in Tier 1 and top Tier 2 cities should lift sell-through for leather goods, jewelry, and watches; inventory must be reallocated into mainland China ahead of Western holidays and Chinese New Year. Tourist channels remain soft, so pricing and allocation should prioritize domestic boutiques and experiential flagships to capture incremental traffic and higher AUR.

Into 6-12 months, leaders with cultural relevance and distinctive CX will compound share as local demand normalizes; winners can deliver above-market growth in 2026 even if broader China recovery is gradual until 2027. Portfolio strategy should emphasize high-visibility hero products and experiential formats, while accelerating store upgrades and targeted expansion in Shanghai, Beijing, Shenzhen, Hangzhou, and Chengdu.

Brand heat leaders (Louis Vuitton, Dior, Hermes, Cartier, Miu Miu, Loro Piana, Brunello Cucinelli) gain leverage as consumers gravitate to visible, emotionally resonant labels. Mid-tier brands face share loss unless they create culturally relevant capsules and immersive retail; the experiential flagship arms race intensifies, raising the bar on traffic capture and conversion.

Suppliers of leather goods, fine jewelry, and watches will see rush orders and tighter SLAs for China-bound assortments; logistics must accommodate accelerated replenishment into mainland hubs. Partners in media and KOL ecosystems should expect increased spend on experiential activations; consumers will show lower price sensitivity on iconic SKUs but demand immediacy and elevated service.