Globus faces 2026 debt crunch, threatening Swiss luxury retail stability
Bottom Line Impact
Without a near-term refinancing and capex reprioritization, we estimate mid single-digit revenue declines and margin compression in 2026 with share losses to mono-brand and airport channels; a disciplined liquidity plan and concession shift can stabilize sales, protect flagship equity, and preserve strategic optionality.
Key Facts
5- CHF 125m Covid-era loan to Migros matures in 2026; no refinancing commitment from the main shareholder Central Group
- Ownership: sold in 2020 by Migros to Central Group and Signa; Signa's distribution arm has received a reprieve to avoid bankruptcy
- Management does not expect a return to profitability before 2026, citing renovation, digital investment needs, and weak city-center footfall
- Strategy anchors on experiential luxury in Zurich, Basel, and Lausanne flagships, which require heavy capex amid constrained financing
- Sector stress signals: Germany's Galeria insolvency and Selfridges' high leverage underscore a fragile European department store model
Time Horizons
Key Roles Affected
Executive Summary
Globus must refinance a CHF 125m Migros loan by 2026 while its co-owner Signa remains distressed and Central Group appears unwilling to inject capital. A stalled turnaround and capex-heavy experiential repositioning raise near-term liquidity and partner confidence risks, with potential knock-on effects across brand concessions and Swiss luxury visibility.
Actionable Insights
Immediate Actions (Next 30-90 days)
Launch a dual-track refinancing within 30 days: seek a CHF 150m to CHF 200m secured facility or ABL against inventory and receivables, while negotiating a 24 to 36 month extension or partial amortization holiday with Migros; prepare a sale-leaseback or non-core asset disposal fallback for 2H 2026.
Rationale: Extends runway beyond the 2026 maturity and signals creditor discipline, reducing vendor tightening and stabilizing concession partner commitments.
Role affected:CFO
Urgency level:immediate
Short-term Actions (6-12 months)
Execute a store-by-store triage and capex reprioritization in 60 days, ring-fencing Zurich flagship experience investments and deferring 40 to 60 percent of non-critical renovations; set clear hurdle rates with 12 to 18 month paybacks.
Rationale: Protects the brand's halo while preserving liquidity and focusing resources on doors with highest traffic, tourism mix, and partner visibility.
Role affected:CEO
Urgency level:short-term
Shift 10 to 15 percent of floor to concession or consignment formats and increase high-margin, low-working-capital categories such as beauty, accessories, and fine jewelry on memo; target CHF 20m to CHF 30m working capital release by mid 2026.
Rationale: Reduces inventory risk, improves cash conversion, and aligns with brand partners' preference for controlled distribution.
Role affected:Chief Merchandising Officer
Urgency level:short-term
Strategic Actions
Accelerate a marketplace and partner-fulfilled model with strict SLA and real-time inventory integration; deploy clienteling and appointment commerce in top three flagships with measurable KPIs.
Rationale: Creates capex-light breadth while sustaining service and sell-through during physical investment deferrals.
Role affected:Chief Digital Officer
Urgency level:strategic
Risks & Opportunities
Primary Risks
- Liquidity shortfall leading to covenant breach or distressed asset sales if refinancing slips past mid 2026
- Vendor tightening causing inventory gaps, weaker sell-through, and customer defection to competitors
- Brand equity erosion if experiential upgrades stall and service levels decline
Primary Opportunities
- Partner-funded shop-in-shops and concessions to de-risk inventory and co-finance experiences
- Rent resets and variable rent deals that lower occupancy cost ratios in city centers
- Tourism recovery leverage in Zurich and Basel via curated events and VIC programs tied to watch and jewelry seasons