Puig delivers steady 8% Q2 growth; sets 2025 decel amid US tariff risk
Bottom Line Impact
Absent mitigation, higher US tariffs will slow 2025 growth to mid to high single digits and pressure gross margin; disciplined price mix, local finishing, and launch focus can preserve EBIT and sustain Puig's share and brand equity in prestige beauty.
Key Facts
4- Q2 sales reached 1.09b euros at constant currency, up 8% year on year, matching Q1 growth pace
- Result was in line with LSEG consensus at 1.1b euros, indicating no material top-line surprise
- 2024 revenue growth guided at 11%, decelerating to 6-8% in 2025
- Management flagged expected higher US tariffs; the US is one of Puig's largest markets
Time Horizons
Executive Summary
Puig posted 8% constant-currency growth in Q2 to 1.09b euros, inline with consensus and mirroring Q1 momentum, while signaling a slowdown to 6-8% growth in 2025 after 11% in 2024. The pivot reflects anticipated higher US tariffs and broader category normalization, putting a premium on pricing, mix, and supply-chain localization to defend margins and sustain share.
Actionable Insights
Immediate Actions (Next 30-90 days)
Activate a dual-track mitigation plan: implement a 2-4% US list-price increase on select franchises in Q1 2025 and initiate US final assembly or filling pilots covering 10-15% of US volume by Q4 2025
Rationale: Partial price pass-through and origin reconfiguration can offset duty headwinds while preserving volume on price-inelastic hero SKUs
Role affected:CEO
Urgency level:immediate
Short-term Actions (6-12 months)
Run tariff sensitivity and margin protection playbook: secure USD hedges for 70-80% of next 12 months exposure, lock freight rates, and negotiate supplier cost downs of 100-150 bps on packaging
Rationale: Stabilizing FX and input costs creates room to absorb duties without eroding EBIT margin
Role affected:CFO
Urgency level:short-term
Reweight US marketing to hero pillars and high-LTV cohorts, while pacing newness to 2-3 blockbuster moments in 2025 tied to proven franchises
Rationale: Concentrated spend on price-inelastic franchises and loyal segments improves price realization and reduces promo leakage under tariff stress
Role affected:CMO
Urgency level:short-term
Strategic Actions
Qualify 2-3 US contract manufacturers for secondary filling and packaging; design SKUs with tariff-efficient bills of materials and rules-of-origin compliance
Rationale: Local value-add and compliant design can reduce effective duty burden and lead times by 10-20%
Role affected:COO
Urgency level:strategic
Risks & Opportunities
Primary Risks
- Higher-than-anticipated US tariffs compress gross margin if pass-through lags
- US consumer softness or increased promotional intensity erodes price realization
- Retailer inventory rebalancing in H1 2025 slows sell-in and elevates returns
Primary Opportunities
- Selective pricing on hero franchises with low elasticity protects margin
- Footprint localization and duty-drawback optimization reduce landed cost
- Travel Retail recovery and China fragrance penetration support mix and volume