Prada Group grows 9 as Prada softens, Miu Miu surges; H2 recalibration
Bottom Line Impact
Reallocating capital and inventory to Miu Miu while tightening Prada brand assortments should sustain high single digit group growth, protect 50 to 100 bps of margin, and reinforce portfolio positioning without eroding brand equity.
Key Facts
5- Group H1 2025 revenue rose 9 percent to €2.74 billion vs 17 percent growth in H1 2024
- Prada brand retail sales fell 1.9 percent year on year in H1 2025; Q2 declined 3.6 percent at constant FX vs 6 percent growth in H1 2024
- Miu Miu retail sales grew 49 percent year on year in H1 2025 and 40 percent in Q2; growth normalized from 93 percent in H1 2024
- Asia Pacific sales increased 10 percent year on year and Europe grew 9 percent in H1 2025
- Q2 saw lower touristic spending, weighing on traffic and conversion in key European destinations
Time Horizons
Key Roles Affected
Executive Summary
Prada Group delivered 9 percent H1 2025 growth to €2.74 billion as Prada brand retail sales declined 1.9 percent while Miu Miu rose 49 percent, signaling a mix shift toward the faster brand. Momentum remains above sector peers in a slowing market, but Q2 pressures from tourist softness and Prada brand deceleration require near term reallocation of inventory, marketing, and capex to protect margin and sustain top line.
Actionable Insights
Immediate Actions (Next 30-90 days)
Authorize a 15 to 20 percent capex reallocation in H2 toward Miu Miu doors, pop ups, and high traffic shop in shops across 10 to 15 priority locations
Rationale: Miu Miu growth at 49 percent warrants footprint acceleration to convert demand and hedge Prada brand softness while tourism remains subdued
Role affected:CEO
Urgency level:immediate
Reduce Prada brand open to buy by 10 to 15 percent for FW25 reorders and set markdown guardrails to protect full price sell through above 75 percent
Rationale: Prada brand Q2 decline of 3.6 percent at constant FX signals inventory risk; disciplined OTB and markdown control will defend gross margin in H2
Role affected:CFO
Urgency level:immediate
Short-term Actions (6-12 months)
Shift 20 percent of brand media from broad awareness to CRM and clienteling, doubling Miu Miu digital investment in conversion formats and micro influencer content
Rationale: Local client growth must offset lower tourist traffic and capture Miu Miu high intent demand efficiently
Role affected:CMO
Urgency level:short-term
Narrow Prada brand assortments by 20 percent of low velocity SKUs and introduce tightly curated entry price accessories below €1,200 while preserving ASP on icons
Rationale: SKU focus and accessible entry points can stabilize traffic without diluting brand equity, improving sell through and working capital turns
Role affected:Chief Merchandising Officer
Urgency level:short-term
Risks & Opportunities
Primary Risks
- Faster than expected normalization at Miu Miu to mid teens growth could reduce group top line momentum
- Persistent tourist weakness in Europe may pressure traffic and raise markdowns in Q4
- FX and macro volatility in Asia Pacific could dampen local demand and margins
Primary Opportunities
- Accelerated Miu Miu expansion and replenishment can capture outsized share of Gen Z and new luxury entrants
- Cross brand client migration programs can lift Prada brand productivity by leveraging Miu Miu traffic
- Selective price optimization on top sellers can expand gross margin 50 to 100 bps without demand destruction