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Valentino CEO exits amid profit slump; Kering option raises stakes for 2025 reset

Bottom Line Impact

Swift leadership installation and platform leverage can stabilize sales within 1 to 2 quarters and set up a 150 to 300 bps EBITDA margin rebuild into 2026, strengthening competitive position and brand equity ahead of any potential Kering control move.

Executive Summary

Valentino faces a leadership vacuum as CEO Jacopo Venturini departs following a weak 2024, intensifying execution risk ahead of a critical product cycle and potential Kering integration. The next 90 days will determine whether the brand stabilizes margins and momentum or cedes share to faster-moving peers, with governance between Mayhoola and Kering now pivotal.

Actionable Insights

Immediate Actions (Next 30-90 days)
Appoint an interim CEO with merchandising and retail P and L authority within 14 days and launch a 90 day stabilization plan targeting 100 bps margin preservation via opex deferrals, inventory pruning, and markdown discipline
Rationale: Rapid authority and clarity reduces wholesale pullback risk and protects cash as new collections approach
Role affected:Valentino board chair
Urgency level:immediate
Stand up a weekly cash and inventory war room; cut non critical capex by 20 percent for the next two quarters, target 200 bps improvement in markdown rate, and lower weeks of supply by 1.5 to 2.0 weeks by end of Q2
Rationale: Liquidity and inventory discipline extend runway for a product led rebound and margin rebuild
Role affected:CFO
Urgency level:immediate
Short-term Actions (6-12 months)
Front load a client activation program for new creative direction with VIC previews in top 20 stores, set waitlist targets of 300 to 500 clients per hero bag SKU, and allocate 60 percent of Q1 media to high intent digital and CRM
Rationale: Demand seeding now raises full price sell through by 5 to 7 points on first deliveries and buffers leadership noise
Role affected:CMO
Urgency level:short-term
Second an operating partner as interim COO, establish a joint steering committee with Mayhoola, and define 12 month integration milestones with synergy targets of €80m to €120m EBIT run rate by year 3 in sourcing, leather goods industrial platform, and tech stack
Rationale: Early operating influence de risks future control and accelerates value creation optionality under the 2028 option
Role affected:Kering EVP strategy and M and A
Urgency level:short-term

Strategic Analysis

30 to 90 days will see elevated operational risk across wholesale preorders and retail conversion unless an interim CEO with turnaround authority is named within 2 weeks. Expect vendor and landlord renegotiations, tighter inventory buys for SS25, and heightened employee retention needs at HQ; communications to top 500 VIC clients and key wholesale partners must be executed within 10 business days to limit demand softness.

Over 6 to 12 months, decisive leadership and clearer governance could lift like for like sales by 4 to 6 percent and restore 150 to 250 bps of EBITDA margin via pricing discipline, mix shift to leather goods, and lower markdowns tied to new collections. Kering may increase operational influence and prepare integration tracks ahead of a possible control move before 2028, while Mayhoola calibrates a value maximizing exit path.

A leadership gap risks share loss to Dior, Prada, Bottega Veneta, and Saint Laurent, all benefiting from strong creative and retail execution. If Kering deploys platform capabilities to Valentino, it creates a stronger second growth engine alongside Gucci, pressuring Versace and Ferragamo in accessible luxury leather goods and eveningwear. Delay beyond 90 days would widen the execution gap in China and the US, where aspirational demand remains fragile.

Suppliers face order visibility risk for SS25 to AW25; firming buy plans within 30 days will stabilize atelier schedules and material commitments. Wholesale partners may reduce open to buy by 5 to 10 percent absent clear leadership guidance, while DTC could see conversion dip 100 to 200 bps without fresh clienteling initiatives. Customers await a coherent narrative around the new creative direction; proactive waitlist building and VIC previews can re anchor demand.

Risks & Opportunities

Primary Risks

  • Prolonged leadership vacuum drives 5 to 10 percent wholesale order cuts for AW25 and elevated staff attrition
  • Misalignment between business and creative timing leads to excess inventory and 150 to 250 bps margin drag
  • Governance frictions between Mayhoola and Kering delay decisions and confuse market messaging

Primary Opportunities

  • New creative cycle can re accelerate leather goods with 8 to 12 percent growth in 2025 if supported by VIC activation
  • Platform leverage from Kering in industrial and omnichannel could add 200 to 300 bps to EBITDA margin by 2026
  • Portfolio repositioning enables price architecture reset and tighter distribution that lifts brand heat and scarcity

Market Context

The leadership change lands amid a soft aspirational demand environment in the US and uneven China recovery, where traffic and conversion remain volatile and daigou channels are muted. Gen Z favors novelty with authenticity, rewarding brands that deliver strong storytelling and omnichannel consistency; sustainability scrutiny continues to shape material choices and supply chain transparency. Competitors at LVMH and Prada Group have out executed on merchandising and retail cadence, while Versace and Ferragamo are also pressing leather goods; Kering seeks another scale brand to diversify beyond Gucci and Saint Laurent, making Valentino a strategic lever if operationalized quickly.

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