Today 4

Valentino installs Bellini as CEO; Kering's 2028 option raises execution stakes

Bottom Line Impact

A disciplined 12-month reset in product mix and DTC execution can reverse recent declines, expand margins by 200-300 bps, and enhance Valentino's strategic value to Kering ahead of the 2028 option while reinforcing brand equity against couture leaders.

Executive Summary

Riccardo Bellini moves from Mayhoola to lead Valentino after a period of softer performance, with EBITDA down 22% and sales down 3%. With Kering holding 30% and a 2028 option for full control, the next 12-24 months will directly shape valuation, forcing accelerated operational fixes, brand heat rebuilding, and clear KPI governance across Valentino, Mayhoola, and Kering.

Actionable Insights

Immediate Actions (Next 30-90 days)
Launch a 90-day turnaround sprint with 12-month targets: sales +3-5%, EBITDA margin +200-300 bps, DTC mix +5-7 pts, inventory turns +0.5x; cut long-tail SKUs by 20-30% and re-stage hero programs led by Rockstud and couture capsules.
Rationale: Quantified goals tied to product focus and channel mix will restore margin and brand heat while directly improving the 2028 valuation baseline.
Role affected:Valentino CEO
Urgency level:immediate
Reignite brand heat via 2-3 limited drops per season, China-first digital activations on WeChat and Douyin, and clienteling to top 5% VICs; target 80%+ 8-week sell-through on drops and waitlist depth of 2-3x supply for top SKUs.
Rationale: Scarcity-led demand and focused VIC engagement drive full-price sell-through and ASPs while rebuilding cultural relevance.
Role affected:Valentino CMO
Urgency level:immediate
Short-term Actions (6-12 months)
Define a valuation bridge to 2028 with KPI guardrails and a synergy blueprint (procurement, leather sourcing, shared services, CRM and media buying) targeting 150-250 bps EBITDA uplift; set quarterly operating reviews with Valentino.
Rationale: Early integration readiness and KPI governance will preserve option value, inform capital allocation, and accelerate capture if full acquisition proceeds in 2028.
Role affected:Kering CFO and Corp Dev
Urgency level:short-term
Strategic Actions
Align management incentives with a 2028 value creation plan, linking variable comp to sales CAGR 4-6%, EBITDA margin recovery to pre-decline levels plus 200 bps, and DTC share 75-80%; ring-fence 3-4% of sales for store upgrades and data stack.
Rationale: Governance and capex discipline de-risk execution and maximize exit or rollover value under Kering's option.
Role affected:Mayhoola Board
Urgency level:strategic

Strategic Analysis

Next 30-90 days require stabilization: confirm C-suite continuity, initiate cost and SKU audits, freeze 5-10% discretionary opex, reforecast FY with a focus on cash conversion and inventory weeks of supply, and align KPI scorecards tied to 2028 valuation triggers.

Over 6-12 months, Valentino must restore low to mid single-digit growth and recapture 200-300 bps of EBITDA margin via mix shift to leather goods, DTC penetration +5-7 pts, tighter price architecture, and retail productivity uplift. Strong execution would improve the 2028 option valuation corridor for Kering and de-risk Mayhoola's residual exposure.

A credible turnaround strengthens Kering's couture pillar versus Dior and Chanel while diversifying away from Gucci reliance. Failure to reignite brand heat risks ceding share to LVMH and private maisons in leather goods and couture, especially in China and the US where aspirational demand is uneven.

Suppliers face near-term order smoothing and SKU rationalization; wholesale partners may see tighter allocations and stricter markdown control; DTC weighting will push investments into clienteling and omnichannel, improving full-price sell-through and lowering promotional leakage.

Risks & Opportunities

Primary Risks

  • Execution risk during leadership transition leading to slower-than-planned margin recovery
  • Demand softness in China and US aspirational segments suppressing leather goods sell-through
  • Channel conflict and wholesale contraction driving short-term top-line pressure

Primary Opportunities

  • DTC mix shift and price architecture optimization expanding gross margin by 200-300 bps
  • Kering-enabled synergies in sourcing, CRM, and media efficiency adding 150-250 bps to EBITDA
  • Hero product relaunches and couture halo to lift ASPs 5-8% and reduce markdown dependency

Market Context

Luxury demand is bifurcating as China growth normalizes and US aspirational consumers trade down; winners are leaning into DTC, VIC clienteling, and scarcity-led drops. Valentino must compete against Dior and Chanel in couture and leather goods while Kering seeks to rebalance its portfolio after mixed momentum at other houses. Sustainability regulation and traceability expectations favor groups with integrated supply chains and data capabilities, increasing the relative advantage of Kering-backed synergies if exercised in 2028.

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