Next 30 to 90 days hinge on holiday sell-through in the US and mainland China; brands should prioritize VIC activation, hold broad price hikes, and rebalance inventory toward Tier 1 US doors and flagship China locations while keeping wholesale shipments tight. Expect lower promotional intensity than 2023 but continued selectivity in allocations as travel retail remains constrained by weak Chinese outbound.

Over 6 to 12 months, base case is a gradual normalization to low single-digit organic growth with margin sensitivity of plus or minus 100 to 150 bps depending on price mix and discount discipline. Chinese travel recovery timing is uncertain; experiential retail and designer-led capsules can offset slower tourist spending, but pricing power must be earned through innovation and service, not taken for granted.

LVMH's early stabilization raises the bar; Hermes remains insulated with structural waitlists, Richemont's jewelry likely holds up better than fashion, and Kering's turnaround will be tested against rising expectations. Mid-tier brands risk markdowns if they chase volume; scale players with strong VIC databases and creative momentum will take share.

Leather and atelier capacity planning shifts from contraction to cautious expansion; suppliers should expect modest order upticks for hero SKUs. Travel retail partners face slower replenishment; department store wholesale remains on allocation. Clients are skewing to timeless leather and statement ready-to-wear drops, rewarding brands with tight assortments and rapid replenishment cycles.