Kering installs Bellettini at Gucci to arrest decline; Valentino buyout paused
Bottom Line Impact
If Gucci's creative reset and commercial discipline arrest the decline, Kering can stabilize revenue by mid 2026, recover 80 to 120 bps of group EBIT margin, and prevent further market share losses while preserving brand equity.
Key Facts
5- Gucci contributed nearly 50 percent of Kering's revenue prior to the downturn, magnifying group exposure to brand underperformance
- Gucci sales declined 21 percent in 2024 and a further 25 percent in H1 2025, implying a two year cumulative drop of roughly 40 percent
- Leadership change occurs less than 12 months after the prior appointment, indicating accelerated governance intervention
- Francesca Bellettini previously drove a six fold revenue increase at Saint Laurent over a decade, demonstrating execution credibility at scale
- Demna's first Gucci show is scheduled for 23 September in Milan, creating a 2 to 6 week window for early demand signals and orderbook resets
Time Horizons
Key Roles Affected
Executive Summary
Kering replaces Gucci's chief with Francesca Bellettini, signaling an urgent turnaround as Gucci's sales fell 21 percent in 2024 and another 25 percent in H1 2025. With Demna set to debut his vision on 23 September in Milan and the Valentino buyout deferred, Kering is concentrating capital and leadership to stabilize its largest brand and protect group margins.
Actionable Insights
Immediate Actions (Next 30-90 days)
Stand up a group level turnaround PMO for Gucci with weekly milestones on product, pricing, and channel mix, gated to Q4 holiday execution
Rationale: Centralized governance can compress decision cycles from months to weeks and safeguard against further 2025 EBITDA erosion
Role affected:CEO Kering
Urgency level:immediate
Launch a 90 day hero product sprint tied to the 23 September show with clear KPIs on waitlist depth, full price sell through, and influencer seeding
Rationale: Concentrating demand on 5 to 7 scalable SKUs can add 2 to 3 points to Q4 sell through and reduce markdown exposure
Role affected:CEO Gucci
Urgency level:immediate
Short-term Actions (6-12 months)
Freeze non essential Gucci capex and defer Valentino cash outlays, targeting 300 to 500 million euros liquidity preservation in the next 6 to 9 months
Rationale: Liquidity buffers fund brand rebuilding and protect credit metrics while demand visibility remains impaired
Role affected:CFO Kering
Urgency level:short-term
Deploy a China specific reactivation plan leveraging top 5 percent clients with private events and WeChat CRM journeys to lift repeat purchases by 10 to 15 percent
Rationale: High value client reengagement is the fastest path to incremental revenue in a soft aspirational segment
Role affected:CMO Gucci
Urgency level:short-term
Risks & Opportunities
Primary Risks
- Creative misalignment between Demna's aesthetic and current quiet luxury demand could dampen conversion
- Execution strain from leadership transition may slow merchandising and supply chain decisions into Holiday
- Potential spillover impact on Saint Laurent's momentum if talent and attention shift to Gucci
Primary Opportunities
- Fast traction on a focused hero lineup could stabilize comps by Q1 2026
- Channel mix optimization away from wholesale can lift gross margin by 150 to 250 bps
- Reallocation of cash from the Valentino buyout pause strengthens balance sheet resilience and optional M and A timing