Today 4

Bennahmias launches THMG: new multi-brand luxury challenger to AP

Bottom Line Impact

Expect near-term cost and retention pressure for Audemars Piguet and a moderate reallocation of attention and supplier capacity toward THMG, while THMG's disciplined sequencing can create early high-margin service revenues and brand equity momentum that positions it as a credible indie challenger within 12 months.

Executive Summary

François-Henri Bennahmias has launched The Honourable Merchants Group (THMG), a seven-entity platform spanning watchmaking, fashion, jewelry, lifestyle, e-bikes, and services, staffed by 70 specialists and now backed by Swiss and international investors. Near term, expect intensified competition for talent, suppliers, and attention in high-end watches; over 6-12 months, THMG could monetize services first while seeding product plays, requiring Audemars Piguet (ID: 376) to reinforce retention and supply security and offering THMG (ID: 1076) a path to build a values-led luxury ecosystem.

Actionable Insights

Immediate Actions (Next 30-90 days)
Activate a 90-day critical talent retention program with targeted stay bonuses, equity-linked incentives, and non-solicit reinforcements for top 5-10% roles in product, marketing, and supply.
Rationale: THMG will compete aggressively for scarce watchmaking and brand-building talent; a proactive plan can cut voluntary turnover by 30-50% and avert 6-12 month capability gaps.
Role affected:AP CEO/CHRO
Urgency level:immediate
Sequence commercialization: prioritize collection management services to reach first revenues within 3-6 months; limit near-term product scope to 1-2 capsule drops; implement milestone-based capital release.
Rationale: Services have faster time-to-revenue and validate the model while conserving cash; disciplined gating reduces execution risk across seven entities.
Role affected:THMG CEO/CFO
Urgency level:immediate
Short-term Actions (6-12 months)
Secure 18-24 months of supplier capacity for key movements and complications via take-or-pay or volume-commit contracts; budget 3-5% cost uptick to lock priority slots.
Rationale: If THMG pre-books premium capacity, lead times and costs could rise; forward contracts protect AP's launch cadence and margin mix.
Role affected:AP COO/CFO
Urgency level:short-term
Build a founders' circle membership with data capture, concierge trade-in, and cross-category privileges; target 5,000 qualified members at launch with 20-30% conversion to paid tier.
Rationale: Community-first demand creation lowers CAC, creates predictable sell-through for early capsules, and monetizes services ahead of full product ramp.
Role affected:THMG CMO/Chief Community Officer
Urgency level:short-term

Strategic Analysis

Next 30-90 days: heightened headhunting targeting AP and independents for product, marketing, and retail leadership; suppliers of calibers, cases, and complications (e.g., Sellita, Vaucher, specialist ateliers) field inbound from THMG to explore capacity for 2025 builds; retailers and private clients engage with THMG services pipeline (collection management) as a near-term, low-friction entry point. Expect AP to face +15-25% compensation pressure on critical roles and to tighten NDAs/non-solicit clauses.

6-12 months: THMG likely prioritizes services (collection management and lifestyle) for early revenue, while teasing limited product capsules or collabs to build brand heat; initial watchmaking outputs more plausibly appear as small-batch or partnered projects before full in-house lines. For Audemars Piguet, sustaining momentum post-leadership transition hinges on reinforcing creative continuity, deepening community programs, and securing supplier capacity to preempt any squeeze from new entrants.

THMG introduces a founder-led, cross-category indie platform competing for scarce master-craft talent and premium supplier slots, positioning between pure independents and conglomerates (Richemont, LVMH, Kering). AP retains scale and brand heat advantages but risks distraction from talent poaching and narrative share loss; THMG can leverage Bennahmias' halo to punch above weight in PR, partnerships, and celebrity access.

Suppliers: potential capacity tightness in high-grade movements and specialty components if THMG secures forward allocations; Retail/partners: multi-category bundles and community-driven activations may shift open-to-buy toward THMG pilots; Customers: collection management services can formalize trade-in/consignment flows, feeding primary-to-secondary flywheels; Investors: staged funding likely with milestone gates tied to first service revenues and initial product proofs.

Risks & Opportunities

Primary Risks

  • Execution complexity across seven entities stretching capital and leadership bandwidth.
  • Supplier and talent constraints raising COGS and extending lead times for watchmaking outputs.
  • Mission-value misalignment risk if growth pressures dilute the stated purpose-beyond-profit narrative.

Primary Opportunities

  • First-mover advantage in premium collection management services integrating primary-to-secondary flows.
  • Talent magnet effect leveraging Bennahmias' network to assemble top-tier creators and operators.
  • Cross-category ecosystem synergies (watchmaking, fashion, lifestyle) enabling bundled client value and higher LTV.

Market Context

The launch arrives amid a softer China outlook and normalized US demand, with secondary watch markets off peak 2022 highs and consumers rewarding authenticity, scarcity, and values-led brands. AP remains supply-constrained on icons (Royal Oak) but faces margin pressure from input inflation and talent costs; THMG can exploit service white-space and community-first demand while avoiding heavy wholesale exposure. Relative to conglomerates with scale, THMG must trade on agility, founder halo, and curated scarcity, similar to how leading independents have outperformed on desirability despite lower volumes.

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