Daily Analysis – Feb 23, 2026
Top Companies
MonclerSaks GlobalOmegaRolex
Top Sectors
Luxury FashionLuxury WatchesRetailer
Top Countries
ItalySwitzerlandUnited States
Summary
Moncler’s FY2025 results and upbeat early-2026 trading commentary triggered an equity re-rating, reinforcing investor confidence in its margin resilience, DTC growth and portfolio contribution from Stone Island as leadership transitions begin. In contrast, the Swiss watch sector remains under pressure as exports fall again, with the U.S. distorted by tariff-driven pull-forward dynamics while China/Hong Kong show only a tactical holiday lift. On the retail side, Saks Global’s court-approved $1 billion DIP financing underscores the fragility of the U.S. luxury department-store model and the importance of vendor trust and consignment protections, while the Omega vs. Rolex ranking shift highlights widening competitive gaps in Swiss watch brand momentum.
Key News for Today
Moncler shares jump ~11% after FY2025 results showed resilient revenue growth, high EBIT margin and a higher dividend, alongside constructive 2026 expectations and a planned CEO transition.
Why it matters: The market reaction and analyst upgrades signal improving confidence in Moncler’s earnings trajectory, DTC strategy and brand momentum (including Stone Island contribution) as the group prepares for a CEO change.
Impact: Positive read-through for near-term valuation and capital returns, with potential for consensus EPS upgrades and stronger negotiating power with wholesale/landlords as DTC remains the growth engine.
What to follow: Track 1Q/early-2026 sell-through, DTC growth versus wholesale stability, Stone Island pace, and guidance tone around margin drift (28.5% implied by some analyst models).
Swiss watch exports fell 3.6% y/y to CHF 1.9bn with weakness concentrated in high-end precious-metal pieces, while U.S. shipments slumped and China/Hong Kong posted modest Lunar New Year-linked gains.
Why it matters: The data highlights ongoing demand and pricing pressure at the top end, continued tariff-related volatility in the U.S., and limited visibility for a China recovery—key macro inputs for Swiss watch brand planning and inventory control.
Impact: Category headwinds can pressure full-price sell-through and wholesale replenishment, raising promotional and inventory risks across luxury watches, especially for precious-metal SKUs.
What to follow: Monitor monthly FH export releases, U.S. tariff policy changes, the mix shift between precious metals vs. bimetal, and evidence of sustained China/HK recovery beyond the holiday period.
Saks Global secured final court approval for a $1bn bankruptcy loan after settling vendor concerns over consignment inventory rights and outlining ~ $600m in catch-up vendor payments.
Why it matters: The financing and consignment clarifications are pivotal to restoring vendor supply and keeping luxury concessions operating, directly affecting Saks Global’s ability to rebuild inventory and stabilize sales.
Impact: Near-term liquidity improves and vendor shipments may resume, but high leverage and restructuring constraints can limit merchandising investment and reduce Saks’ competitive relevance versus healthier luxury retail channels.
What to follow: Watch the cadence of vendor repayments (including the next-two-weeks $330m), vendor re-onboarding/shipments, inventory levels, and progress on renegotiating $3.4bn debt and key lease terms.
Omega fell to fifth among Swiss watchmakers by estimated 2025 sales as Rolex extended its lead, underscoring divergent momentum amid China softness and secondary-market discounting pressure.
Why it matters: Relative ranking shifts can influence retailer allocation, marketing efficiency and pricing power, with Omega facing greater pressure to defend brand heat and full-price integrity against Rolex’s accelerating scale and scarcity model.
Impact: Omega’s perceived momentum and pricing power risk weakening (especially in China where discounts are cited), while Rolex’s market leadership narrative strengthens, potentially capturing disproportionate demand and mindshare.
What to follow: Track Omega sell-out trends in China vs. U.S. store productivity, secondary-market discount levels, boutique expansion effectiveness, and Rolex supply/demand indicators and retail sales estimates.