US tariffs drove a sharp September slump in Swiss... – 2025-10-24

Tariffs and uneven regional demand are reshaping the luxury playbook: Swiss watch exports slumped on a sharp US hit, while Hermès sustained growth and accelerated ready-to-wear momentum amid a menswear leadership change. Meanwhile, Ferragamo’s sales decline underscores pressure on mid-tier luxury, and Zegna’s mixed quarter highlights portfolio imbalances as direct channels outpace weakening wholesale.

Key News for Today

US tariffs drove a sharp September slump in Swiss watch exports, with shipments to the US down 55% and overall exports falling 3.1%.

Why it matters: A sustained US tariff burden threatens Swiss watchmakers’ biggest market, pressuring pricing, inventory, and channel strategy.

Impact: Expect US revenue softness and potential price increases or assortment shifts, which could compress margins and distort sell-in vs. sell-through.

What to follow: Watch for US-Swiss tariff negotiations, monthly FH export prints, US retail sell-through, and any brand-specific pricing actions.

Hermès posts steady Q3 growth (+9.6% cc) as ready-to-wear outperforms and appoints Grace Wales Bonner to lead menswear, aiming to sustain fashion momentum.

Why it matters: Strength in non-leather categories and a high-profile menswear hire bolster Hermès’ diversification and long-term brand heat.

Impact: Continued RTW traction could support top-line resilience and mix, though FX headwinds and leather goods expectation misses may weigh on margins.

What to follow: Monitor menswear sell-through under the new director, China demand re-acceleration post-Golden Week, and 2026 pricing cadence vs. currency headwinds.

Ferragamo’s sales fell 6.6% YTD to €695m as Asia lags and wholesale weakens, prompting focus on footwear, leather goods, and cost discipline.

Why it matters: The results highlight mounting pressure on mid-tier luxury players to streamline assortments and reset cost structures amid softer Asian demand.

Impact: Revenue softness and channel mix shifts could compress margins near term, with turnaround relying on core category strength and operating efficiency.

What to follow: Track Asia Pacific recovery, wholesale destocking pace, DTC growth, and evidence of improved sell-through in footwear and leather goods.

Zegna’s Q3 edged up while 9M sales fell 2.3% as Thom Browne dragged, DTC held firm, and China softness offset gains in the Americas.

Why it matters: Mixed portfolio performance underscores execution risk in multi-brand groups, with wholesale weakness and China headwinds testing near-term growth.

Impact: Expect flattish revenue trajectory until Thom Browne stabilizes and China improves, while DTC outperformance supports margin resilience.

What to follow: Watch Thom Browne’s turnaround under the new CEO, China demand inflection, wholesale normalization, and DTC productivity by region.

Daily Analysis – 2025-10-24

Key News for Today

US tariffs drove a sharp September slump in Swiss watch exports, with shipments to the US down 55% and overall exports falling 3.1%.

Hermès posts steady Q3 growth (+9.6% cc) as ready-to-wear outperforms and appoints Grace Wales Bonner to lead menswear, aiming to sustain fashion momentum.

Ferragamo’s sales fell 6.6% YTD to €695m as Asia lags and wholesale weakens, prompting focus on footwear, leather goods, and cost discipline.

Zegna’s Q3 edged up while 9M sales fell 2.3% as Thom Browne dragged, DTC held firm, and China softness offset gains in the Americas.

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