Daily Analysis – Oct 24, 2025
Top Companies
HermèsFerragamoZegna
Top Sectors
Luxury WatchesLuxury Fashion
Top Countries
United StatesFranceItaly
Summary
Tariffs and uneven regional demand are reshaping the luxury playbook: Swiss watch exports slumped on a sharp US hit, while Hermès sustained growth and accelerated ready-to-wear momentum amid a menswear leadership change. Meanwhile, Ferragamo’s sales decline underscores pressure on mid-tier luxury, and Zegna’s mixed quarter highlights portfolio imbalances as direct channels outpace weakening wholesale.
Key News for Today
US tariffs drove a sharp September slump in Swiss watch exports, with shipments to the US down 55% and overall exports falling 3.1%.
Why it matters: A sustained US tariff burden threatens Swiss watchmakers’ biggest market, pressuring pricing, inventory, and channel strategy.
Impact: Expect US revenue softness and potential price increases or assortment shifts, which could compress margins and distort sell-in vs. sell-through.
What to follow: Watch for US-Swiss tariff negotiations, monthly FH export prints, US retail sell-through, and any brand-specific pricing actions.
Hermès posts steady Q3 growth (+9.6% cc) as ready-to-wear outperforms and appoints Grace Wales Bonner to lead menswear, aiming to sustain fashion momentum.
Why it matters: Strength in non-leather categories and a high-profile menswear hire bolster Hermès’ diversification and long-term brand heat.
Impact: Continued RTW traction could support top-line resilience and mix, though FX headwinds and leather goods expectation misses may weigh on margins.
What to follow: Monitor menswear sell-through under the new director, China demand re-acceleration post-Golden Week, and 2026 pricing cadence vs. currency headwinds.
Ferragamo’s sales fell 6.6% YTD to €695m as Asia lags and wholesale weakens, prompting focus on footwear, leather goods, and cost discipline.
Why it matters: The results highlight mounting pressure on mid-tier luxury players to streamline assortments and reset cost structures amid softer Asian demand.
Impact: Revenue softness and channel mix shifts could compress margins near term, with turnaround relying on core category strength and operating efficiency.
What to follow: Track Asia Pacific recovery, wholesale destocking pace, DTC growth, and evidence of improved sell-through in footwear and leather goods.
Zegna’s Q3 edged up while 9M sales fell 2.3% as Thom Browne dragged, DTC held firm, and China softness offset gains in the Americas.
Why it matters: Mixed portfolio performance underscores execution risk in multi-brand groups, with wholesale weakness and China headwinds testing near-term growth.
Impact: Expect flattish revenue trajectory until Thom Browne stabilizes and China improves, while DTC outperformance supports margin resilience.
What to follow: Watch Thom Browne’s turnaround under the new CEO, China demand inflection, wholesale normalization, and DTC productivity by region.